May 30, 2015: Dude, Where’s My Recovery?

For five years, we have been hearing that prosperity is right around the corner. For five years, every turn of the corner has led to a blind alley. That’s not about to change any time soon.

This week we looked at why the recovery has not (and will not) come. As a note, for several weeks we have predicted that Q1 GDP growth would probably be revised negative, which it was on Friday. The only bright spot was that inventories were revised down, which could prop up Q2 GDP growth. However, Q2 GDP growth is still likely to be less than 1% , vs. current 2%+ forecasts.

We also did an update on Greece and China, including China’s activities in the South China Sea, (which we have discussed for months and which are finally starting to get some attention). We also looked at some non-conventional measures that suggest that markets are topping out.

Overall, markets are looking very weak. There is a lot of downside opportunity, but if you are in the market make sure you are protected; things could get ugly quickly.

Check out this week’s show here:

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If you would like to submit a question to the show, or to give us feedback, please send an email to: phoenix@tradingacademy.com. Also, check out our sister show, “The Right Side Of The Trade” on the following stations:

◾550 KFYI: Sunday at 4:30am

◾910 KGME: Sunday at 4am

◾960 The Patriot: Sunday at 10am

◾Money Radio 1510 and 99.3: Thursday at noon and Saturday 10am

◾1100 KFNX: Thursday at 4pm and Sunday at noon

◾910 KGME: Saturday at 6:30am

Of course, you can always find Next Week In Stocks on:

◾550 KFYI: Saturday at 1pm and Sunday at 2pm

◾1230 KFYI 2: Saturday at noon and Sunday at 10am

May 23, 2015: On The Fence…

The market is having a tough time going higher. It is also having a tough time going lower. Volatility is low, valuations are high. Today we discussed the straddle as an options strategy for this type of market. We also predicted that Q1 GDP would be revised negative and that Q2 would be below .5%. Greece is likely to default and China is growing more slowly than they are letting on, but always remember, the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. That said, you can still make money in an irrational market. Check out this week’s show to find out how!

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If you would like to submit a question to the show, or to give us feedback, please send an email to: phoenix@tradingacademy.com. Also, check out our sister show, “The Right Side Of The Trade” on the following stations:

◾550 KFYI: Sunday at 4:30am

◾910 KGME: Sunday at 4am

◾960 The Patriot: Sunday at 10am

◾Money Radio 1510 and 99.3: Thursday at noon and Saturday 10am

◾1100 KFNX: Thursday at 4pm and Sunday at noon

◾910 KGME: Saturday at 6:30am

Of course, you can always find Next Week In Stocks on:

◾550 KFYI: Saturday at 1pm and Sunday at 2pm

◾1230 KFYI 2: Saturday at noon and Sunday at 10am

May 9, 2015: Is Bad News Still Good News?

This week we talked in general about the manipulation of both government and corporate numbers. This show was recorded before the May jobs numbers came out, so we speculated a little on how they might turn out and what that might mean for the markets. Watch what happens on both Friday and Monday for a clue as to where markets may be headed longer term…

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If you would like to submit a question to the show, or to give us feedback, please send an email to: phoenix@tradingacademy.com. Also, check out our sister show, “The Right Side Of The Trade” on the following stations:

◾550 KFYI: Sunday at 4am

◾910 KGME: Sunday at 4am

◾960 The Patriot: Sunday at 10am

◾Money Radio 1510 and 99.3: Thursday at noon and Saturday 10am

◾1100 KFNX: Thursday at 4pm and Sunday at noon

◾910 KGME: Saturday at 6:30am

Of course, you can always find Next Week In Stocks on:

◾550 KFYI: Saturday at 1pm and Sunday at 2pm

◾1230 KFYI 2: Saturday at noon and Sunday at 10am

May 2, 2015: Does The Fed Know About Shrinkage?

Last week we suggested that GDP growth for Q1 was likely to be weak, maybe even negative, if the numbers weren’t cooked. GDP came in this week at .2% growth vs. a forecast of 1% and everyone’s blaming the weather. Unless our entire economy now consists of clam chowder and Boston Baked Beans, it’s not the weather. In most of the country temperatures were above normal this winter.

If it weren’t for increasing inventories, and the Fed’s belief that prices fell last quarter, GDP would have been negative. In fact, on a per capita basis we were still negative. Things are slowing down.

Consensus economic forecast for Q2 GDP is 3.4% as of today. Goldman Sachs has it at 3%, the Atlanta Fed at .9%. I think they are all potentially optimistic. I would look for below 1% growth for Q2, below 2% for the year and potentially a revision to negative for Q1. With all that, the market may well go higher, since the Fed is less likely to act.

This show was taped before the market opened Friday. I said in the show that Friday would be important. If the market fell, it may well continue to drop, but it may well get a bounce. It did finish significantly higher and may continue up, but I still think there is more downside to come at some point, so be prepared.

As a note, in our April 22 class we put on the SPY Put trade that we have discussed many times on the show. We closed it out for a 25% profit on 4/30, so the trade is still working. If you want to know more, check out this week’s show here!

Click Here For Free CD Offer!

If you would like to submit a question to the show, or to give us feedback, please send an email to: phoenix@tradingacademy.com. Also, check out our sister show, “The Right Side Of The Trade” on the following stations:

◾550 KFYI: Sunday at 4am

◾910 KGME: Sunday at 4am

◾960 The Patriot: Sunday at 10am

◾Money Radio 1510 and 99.3: Thursday at noon and Saturday 10am

◾1100 KFNX: Thursday at 4pm and Sunday at noon

◾910 KGME: Saturday at 6:30am

Of course, you can always find Next Week In Stocks on:

◾550 KFYI: Saturday at 1pm and Sunday at 2pm

◾1230 KFYI 2: Saturday at noon and Sunday at 10am