March 26, 2016: Risky Business

The key to success in the markets is risk management. That is an easy thing to say, but what does it really mean? Is it just using a stop-loss?

Risk management starts before you ever make a trade or investment. It starts with, what are you investing in? Unfortunately most people are investing in the wrong instruments. For example, stocks are very difficult to risk manage, mutual funds are worse and mutual funds inside 401(k)s make a mockery of risk management principles.

Beyond the instrument, there is the price paid, the fee structure, the plan for the investment, the general market conditions and much more. We go through these ideas in today’s show.

We also talk about how the market has changed. The world isn’t the same as it was in the post WWII world when there were a number of drivers of the American economy that just aren’t there any more. Unfortunately, those drivers aren’t coming back. This adds the issue of time-in-position to risk management.

Check out this week’s show here:

Given this week’s topic we are going to be doing a special class, “Managing Risk In Today’s Market”. If you would like free tickets to the class, call 84-48-Income (844.846.2663) and tell them that you read about it on the Next Week In Stocks website. I hope to see you there!

Click Here For Free CD Offer!

If you would like to submit a question to the show, or to give us feedback, please send an email to:  phoenix@tradingacademy.com. Also, check out our sister show, “The Right Side Of The Trade” on the following stations:

◾Money Radio 1510 and 99.3: Thursday and Saturday at noon

◾1100 KFNX:  Wednesday at 3pm

Of course, you can always find “Next Week In Stocks” on:

◾550 KFYI: Saturday at 1pm and Sunday at 4am

March 19, 2016: The Song Still Remains The Same

Well, the Fed didn’t raise rates this month. If anything, they were more dovish in their announcement than expected. Given what they call “data” and where we are with their unemployment and inflation numbers, it is hard to see rates going up anytime soon. That said, they may make some hawkish comments over the coming weeks about June, but I think they know that that could hit the market pretty hard, so it is difficult to know their next steps.

I have said for some time that I didn’t see how they could raise this year, but they have created that expectation. To save face, maybe there will be one or two increases this year, but I wouldn’t be surprised by zero. If they do raise, I would suspect the market would take it very poorly.

The market went up after the meeting, but not a lot. Earnings and revenues continue to deteriorate. Manufacturing numbers suggest a recession may be here or coming. If the fundamentals ever matter again, the market will be in real trouble. Watch 2050-2065 on the S&P. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a quick move up to there, but the market may then pullback when it happens. A move above 2,100 on the S&P could provide some more opportunities for puts.

We are getting close to earnings season. When it comes, there will be a lull in stock buybacks. Buybacks are the only buying pushing the market higher right now. It is likely the market will fall over the next few weeks as this moves through the market as well.

So, what does all this mean? It means be careful. I believe there is more downside risk than upside potential in the market right now, but I could be wrong. My concern for most people is that if I’m right, they don’t really know what to do when markets decline and when the market does take a hit, they are really going to suffer. It is why it is so important to know what to do before the market declines. We talked about all of these topics this week. Check out this week’s show here:

Given this week’s topic I am going to be doing a special class, “A Smarter Way To Invest”. If you would like free tickets to the class, call 84-48-Income (844.846.2663) and tell them that you read about it on the Next Week In Stocks website. I hope to see you there!

Click Here For Free CD Offer!

If you would like to submit a question to the show, or to give us feedback, please send an email to:  phoenix@tradingacademy.com. Also, check out our sister show, “The Right Side Of The Trade” on the following stations:

◾Money Radio 1510 and 99.3: Thursday and Saturday at noon

◾1100 KFNX:  Wednesday at 3pm

Of course, you can always find “Next Week In Stocks” on:

◾550 KFYI: Saturday at 1pm and Sunday at 4am

March 12, 2016: Non-Growing Pains

In today’s show I expanded last week’s discussion on retiring in a negative interest rate world to include achieving your financial goals in a no-growth world. If you can’t make money in bonds, and if stocks aren’t going up (because there is no growth), what can you do?

It is my opinion that real interest rates are likely to stay low for years, if not decades, and there will be little to no economic growth. Therefore it is unlikely that there will be much in the way of gains in stock prices. That doesn’t mean you can’t learn to manage your money successfully in that environment, but the classic buy and hold approach is unlikely to succeed.

I also talked a little politics and the election’s possible impact on the market. If you are easily offended, and/or drinking the Kool-Aid for any candidate, you might want to avoid the last segment of the show. If however you understand the world is not a “safe-space”, you can check out this week’s show here:

Given this week’s topic I am going to be doing a special class, “Achieving Your Financial Goals In A No Growth World”. I will be teaching this class personally. If you would like free tickets to the class, call 84-48-Income (844.846.2663) and tell them that you read about it on the Next Week In Stocks website. I hope to see you there!

Click Here For Free CD Offer!

If you would like to submit a question to the show, or to give us feedback, please send an email to:  phoenix@tradingacademy.com. Also, check out our sister show, “The Right Side Of The Trade” on the following stations:

◾Money Radio 1510 and 99.3: Thursday and Saturday at noon

◾1100 KFNX:  Wednesday at 3pm

Of course, you can always find “Next Week In Stocks” on:

◾550 KFYI: Saturday at 1pm and Sunday at 4am

March 5, 2016: Europe On -$5/Day

This week we covered many topics:  currency manipulation, growing jobs, tax policy and regulation; and that was just in the first segment!

Here is the bottom line. We are looking at years, if not decades of low real growth (and when properly defined, of real contraction) and the next step is likely to be negative interest rates. In that environment, how can you reach your financial goals? If bonds pay nothing (or charge you) and stocks grow 1% or less overall (for the last 15 years they’ve compounded at 2%, and that’s with a market at an all time high), traditional approaches like pensions, buy and hold, IRA’s, 401(k)’s, Mutual Funds, are unlikely to yield a comfortable, or even survivable retirement. Given that Social Security has been running a deficit since 2010, which will only get worse, I wouldn’t count on that either…

In the old days if you had a million dollars, you could put it in a CD, make 5% a year and have $50K/year to spend without drawing down your savings. To do the same thing going forward will likely require $5 million, and most people are totally unprepared for this world (plus, how far is $50K going to get you these days?) In this show we go through the assumptions and math behind these assertions. We also talked about the importance of 1940 on the S&P (we have now closed above) and the importance of 1990-1995 as the next level to watch. Finally we discussed why the market has been going up, and why you need to watch out for early April… Check this week’s show out here:

Given this week’s topic we are going to be doing a special class, “Financial Security In A World Of Negative Interest Rates”. If you would like free tickets to the class, call 84-48-Income (844.846.2663) and tell them that you read about it on the Next Week In Stocks website. I hope to see you there!

Click Here For Free CD Offer!

If you would like to submit a question to the show, or to give us feedback, please send an email to:  phoenix@tradingacademy.com. Also, check out our sister show, “The Right Side Of The Trade” on the following stations:

◾Money Radio 1510 and 99.3: Thursday and Saturday at noon

◾1100 KFNX:  Wednesday at 3pm

Of course, you can always find “Next Week In Stocks” on:

◾550 KFYI: Saturday at 1pm and Sunday at 4am