January 28, 2017: Roller Coaster

Today was pretty wide-ranging. We put together a number of ideas from the last few shows to highlight the uncertainty of this market. We talked about what could take it up and down, and how ultimately which direction would win was impossible to know. As I post this the market has been dropping because of the reaction to the new Executive Order on Refugees, as well as other policies. We aren’t even two weeks into this presidency and it is looking like a wild ride. One of our students remarked that the next 4 to 8 years would be like having a free ticket on a roller coaster. My response was that I wasn’t sure that any of us were tall enough to ride it.

Check out this week’s show here: 

Given this week’s topic we are going to be conducting a special class, “Making Money In Any Market”.  If you would like free tickets to this class, call 84-48-Income (844.846.2663) and tell them that you read about it on the Next Week In Stocks website. I hope to see you there!

If you would like to submit a question to the show, or to give us feedback, please send an email to:  phoenix@tradingacademy.com. Also, check out our sister show, “The Right Side Of The Trade” on the following stations:

◾Money Radio 1510 and 99.3: Thursdays and Saturdays at noon

◾1100 KFNX:  Wednesdays at 11am and Saturdays at 2pm

◾960 The Patriot:  Saturdays at 1pm

◾1360 KPXQ:  Saturdays at noon

Of course, you can always find “Next Week In Stocks” on:

◾550 KFYI: Saturdays at 1pm and Sundays at 4am

October 22, 2016: That’s Debatable…

Well, the final debate is in the books and nothing has really changed…

As I said before the first debate, Mr. Trump appears to be done. At that time there was still a chance that between WikiLeaks and health issues that HRC might not win (if she had to step aside), but I just didn’t see a path for DJT. I still don’t. I also think HRC will now weather anything, no matter how negative, between now and the election. In my opinion there is a 99% chance she will be the next President.

Given that, we spent this week looking at what was likely to happen to the economy w/HRC in charge. Short answer, it’s not pretty (FWIW, it wouldn’t be w/DJT either.)

Times have changed. Significant organic economic growth is gone and unlikely to return. We are simply creating the illusion of prosperity through debt. This means that investment strategies like Buy and Hold that worked in the 20th century are no longer viable. Stocks are likely provide meager returns, as are bonds for the next 10-20 years. I don’t see significant increases in interest rates or economic growth for years to come.

In this show we discussed the implications of all this for your retirement. If you missed it, check it this week’s show  here: 

Given this week’s topic I am going to be doing a special class, “Trading and Investing in the 21st Century”. I will be teaching this class personally. If you would like free tickets to the class, call 84-48-Income (844.846.2663) and tell them that you read about it on the Next Week In Stocks website. I hope to see you there!

If you would like to submit a question to the show, or to give us feedback, please send an email to:  phoenix@tradingacademy.com. Also, check out our sister show, “The Right Side Of The Trade” on the following stations:

◾Money Radio 1510 and 99.3: Thursdays and Saturdays at noon

◾1100 KFNX:  Thursdays at 3pm

◾960 The Patriot:  Saturdays at 1pm

◾1360 KPXQ:  Saturdays at noon

 

 

Of course, you can always find “Next Week In Stocks” on:

◾550 KFYI: Saturdays at 1pm and Sundays at 4am

August 13, 2016: Lies My Broker Told Me

Over the last 70 years the world and the world economy has changed dramatically, yet most peoples approach to the market remains the same. Despite no real returns for most people over the last 16 years, they continue to buy and hold stocks or mutual funds, waiting for the market to continue higher. They do nothing to protect their positions. That is not how to succeed in the market today.

In this week’s show we discussed some of these myths and faced some realities. If you want to know what to do now, check out this week’s episode here:

Given this week’s topic I am going to be doing a special class, “How Do I Trade And Invest In This Market”. I will be teaching this class personally.If you would like free tickets to the class, call 84-48-Income (844.846.2663) and tell them that you read about it on the Next Week In Stocks website. I hope to see you there!

If you would like to submit a question to the show, or to give us feedback, please send an email to:  phoenix@tradingacademy.com. Also, check out our sister show, “The Right Side Of The Trade” on the following stations:

◾Money Radio 1510 and 99.3: Thursdays and Saturdays at noon

◾1100 KFNX:  Thursdays at 4pm

Of course, you can always find “Next Week In Stocks” on:

◾550 KFYI: Saturdays at 1pm and Sundays at 4am

April 30, 2016: The Times, They Are A Changin’

On the show we often talk about how the market has changed and why new strategies are necessary if you want to reach your financial goals. We expanded that discussion today to get to more of the root economic and structural changes that require these new strategies.

We also continue to hover right around 2100 on the S&P. This week (this show was recorded on 4/25/16) there are at least 2 key pieces of news that will tell us much about this market. The first is the Fed meeting on 4/27, the second is GDP on 4/28. If neither of them take the market significantly higher over the following few days, the next leg is likely down. If it does break higher, it just means the subsequent drop will be that much worse when it does come. Make sure your prepared before the crash, don’t try to react afterwards!

Check out this week’s show here:

Given this week’s topic I am going to be doing a special class, “Retirement Strategies For The 21st Century”. I will be teaching this class personally.If you would like free tickets to the class, call 84-48-Income (844.846.2663) and tell them that you read about it on the Next Week In Stocks website. I hope to see you there!

Click Here For Free CD Offer!

If you would like to submit a question to the show, or to give us feedback, please send an email to:  phoenix@tradingacademy.com. Also, check out our sister show, “The Right Side Of The Trade” on the following stations:

◾Money Radio 1510 and 99.3: Thursday and Saturday at noon

◾1100 KFNX:  Wednesday at 3pm

Of course, you can always find “Next Week In Stocks” on:

◾550 KFYI: Saturday at 1pm and Sunday at 4am

March 12, 2016: Non-Growing Pains

In today’s show I expanded last week’s discussion on retiring in a negative interest rate world to include achieving your financial goals in a no-growth world. If you can’t make money in bonds, and if stocks aren’t going up (because there is no growth), what can you do?

It is my opinion that real interest rates are likely to stay low for years, if not decades, and there will be little to no economic growth. Therefore it is unlikely that there will be much in the way of gains in stock prices. That doesn’t mean you can’t learn to manage your money successfully in that environment, but the classic buy and hold approach is unlikely to succeed.

I also talked a little politics and the election’s possible impact on the market. If you are easily offended, and/or drinking the Kool-Aid for any candidate, you might want to avoid the last segment of the show. If however you understand the world is not a “safe-space”, you can check out this week’s show here:

Given this week’s topic I am going to be doing a special class, “Achieving Your Financial Goals In A No Growth World”. I will be teaching this class personally. If you would like free tickets to the class, call 84-48-Income (844.846.2663) and tell them that you read about it on the Next Week In Stocks website. I hope to see you there!

Click Here For Free CD Offer!

If you would like to submit a question to the show, or to give us feedback, please send an email to:  phoenix@tradingacademy.com. Also, check out our sister show, “The Right Side Of The Trade” on the following stations:

◾Money Radio 1510 and 99.3: Thursday and Saturday at noon

◾1100 KFNX:  Wednesday at 3pm

Of course, you can always find “Next Week In Stocks” on:

◾550 KFYI: Saturday at 1pm and Sunday at 4am

March 5, 2016: Europe On -$5/Day

This week we covered many topics:  currency manipulation, growing jobs, tax policy and regulation; and that was just in the first segment!

Here is the bottom line. We are looking at years, if not decades of low real growth (and when properly defined, of real contraction) and the next step is likely to be negative interest rates. In that environment, how can you reach your financial goals? If bonds pay nothing (or charge you) and stocks grow 1% or less overall (for the last 15 years they’ve compounded at 2%, and that’s with a market at an all time high), traditional approaches like pensions, buy and hold, IRA’s, 401(k)’s, Mutual Funds, are unlikely to yield a comfortable, or even survivable retirement. Given that Social Security has been running a deficit since 2010, which will only get worse, I wouldn’t count on that either…

In the old days if you had a million dollars, you could put it in a CD, make 5% a year and have $50K/year to spend without drawing down your savings. To do the same thing going forward will likely require $5 million, and most people are totally unprepared for this world (plus, how far is $50K going to get you these days?) In this show we go through the assumptions and math behind these assertions. We also talked about the importance of 1940 on the S&P (we have now closed above) and the importance of 1990-1995 as the next level to watch. Finally we discussed why the market has been going up, and why you need to watch out for early April… Check this week’s show out here:

Given this week’s topic we are going to be doing a special class, “Financial Security In A World Of Negative Interest Rates”. If you would like free tickets to the class, call 84-48-Income (844.846.2663) and tell them that you read about it on the Next Week In Stocks website. I hope to see you there!

Click Here For Free CD Offer!

If you would like to submit a question to the show, or to give us feedback, please send an email to:  phoenix@tradingacademy.com. Also, check out our sister show, “The Right Side Of The Trade” on the following stations:

◾Money Radio 1510 and 99.3: Thursday and Saturday at noon

◾1100 KFNX:  Wednesday at 3pm

Of course, you can always find “Next Week In Stocks” on:

◾550 KFYI: Saturday at 1pm and Sunday at 4am

February 6, 2016: When Buy and Hold Fails

This week we revisited the Trump decision to not participate in the last Iowa debate and his subsequent second place finish in the Iowa caucus. There is now much debate about whether this hurt him significantly in Iowa. Who knows, but the point we made last week about risk/reward is critically important. I didn’t see how sitting out was going to help him; I did see how it could damage him.

So what does this have to do with anything? When you look at your portfolio, right now, what is your risk/reward position? What do you own? When will you sell what you have, either because it reached your profit target or a preset loss level? For most retail traders, their risk/reward position is awful. In January 2015 I said that for most retail traders the risk/reward equation was unattractive for them. From that point the market moved up a total of 3%, and then fell a maximum of 15%. It is currently still down 10% from its peak. I still think the risk/reward for the buy and hold investor is poor and one day the 10% drop will be seen as nothing. At some point the market must fall hard. The timing is unknowable, but the eventuality is certain.

Successful traders and investors understand that the same strategy will not always work in all markets; otherwise there would only be one good strategy! Buy and hold was great when the country was growing quickly, as populations grew and productivity increased, but that is not our current world. Even now, when we are still near all-time highs in the major indexes, the market has only yielded about 2% a year, compounded, over the last 15 years, and very few financial advisers, mutual funds or retail traders have even kept up with the market. Given today’s valuations, this number is likely to be lower over the next 10-20 years. This does not mean a general slow market increase, but wild swings up and down that will ruin many a financial future. It will also cause havoc in our nation’s public pension system.

In this type of market, it is critical to be flexible, to have different tools. Buying and holding stocks for the long-term is likely to end in tears for most people. Check out this week’s show to understand why, and learn a better way:

As a note, in this show (recorded about 1:30am MT on 2/3/16), we also previewed Friday’s jobs report. Regardless of the number, even if we get a quick bounce, I think it will be short-lived. In the show I explain why.

Given this week’s topic we are going to be doing a special class, “When Buy and Hold Fails”. We will discuss alternatives to just hoping everything works out in your favor. If you would like free tickets, call 84-48-Income (844.846.2663) and tell them that you read about it on the Next Week In Stocks website. I hope to see you there!

Click Here For Free CD Offer!

If you would like to submit a question to the show, or to give us feedback, please send an email to:  phoenix@tradingacademy.com. Also, check out our sister show, “The Right Side Of The Trade” on the following stations:

◾Money Radio 1510 and 99.3: Thursday and Saturday at noon

◾1100 KFNX: Sunday at 11am and Wednesday at 3pm

Of course, you can always find “Next Week In Stocks” on:

◾550 KFYI: Saturday at 1pm and Sunday at 4am