December 3, 2016: What The Phoenix Housing Tells Us About The Economy

Kind of wide ranging today. The market right now is at an inflection point. Will it drop, or is there another leg higher. No one knows. So what do you do? Prepare for both.

We also discussed a recent Wall Street Journal article about what the Phoenix market says about the national economy. WSJ says it means the national fundamentals are strong. I drew a different conclusion…

Also got in a Big Lebowski reference…

Check it out here:

Given this week’s topic I am going to be doing a special class, “Making Money, Regardless Of Market Direction”. I will be teaching this class personally. If you would like free tickets to the class, call 84-48-Income (844.846.2663) and tell them that you read about it on the Next Week In Stocks website. I hope to see you there!

If you would like to submit a question to the show, or to give us feedback, please send an email to:  phoenix@tradingacademy.com. Also, check out our sister show, “The Right Side Of The Trade” on the following stations:

◾Money Radio 1510 and 99.3: Thursdays and Saturdays at noon

◾1100 KFNX:  Thursdays at 3pm

◾960 The Patriot:  Saturdays at 1pm

◾1360 KPXQ:  Saturdays at noon

Of course, you can always find “Next Week In Stocks” on:

◾550 KFYI: Saturdays at 1pm and Sundays at 4am

April 2, 2016: Fundamentally, We’re Screwed…

This week, we got back to basics. We discussed the fundamentals of the economy, the market and the political race. The fundamentals don’t look strong for any of them…

The show was recorded on 3/28, before Fed Chairperson Yellen’s testimony on 3/29 and the jobs report on 4/1. On the show we laid out 2065 as the key level to watch on the S&P 500. As of this writing (3/31), it is still holding. The market will do what it is going to do, but I don’t think it has much more upside. The close on 4/1 and the Monday follow-through will tell the tale. Without a solid close above 2065, we may be looking at another leg down. It is hard to see any catalyst for the upside outside of a potential weak jobs report that keeps the Fed on the sidelines. Also, the buyback blackout period we are now entering suggests further weakness.

Check out this week’s show here:

Given this week’s topic I am going to be doing a special class, “Achieving Your Financial Goals In A No Growth, Negative Interest Rate World”. I will be teaching this class personally.If you would like free tickets to the class, call 84-48-Income (844.846.2663) and tell them that you read about it on the Next Week In Stocks website. I hope to see you there!

Click Here For Free CD Offer!

If you would like to submit a question to the show, or to give us feedback, please send an email to:  phoenix@tradingacademy.com. Also, check out our sister show, “The Right Side Of The Trade” on the following stations:

◾Money Radio 1510 and 99.3: Thursday and Saturday at noon

◾1100 KFNX:  Wednesday at 3pm

Of course, you can always find “Next Week In Stocks” on:

◾550 KFYI: Saturday at 1pm and Sunday at 4am

February 6, 2016: When Buy and Hold Fails

This week we revisited the Trump decision to not participate in the last Iowa debate and his subsequent second place finish in the Iowa caucus. There is now much debate about whether this hurt him significantly in Iowa. Who knows, but the point we made last week about risk/reward is critically important. I didn’t see how sitting out was going to help him; I did see how it could damage him.

So what does this have to do with anything? When you look at your portfolio, right now, what is your risk/reward position? What do you own? When will you sell what you have, either because it reached your profit target or a preset loss level? For most retail traders, their risk/reward position is awful. In January 2015 I said that for most retail traders the risk/reward equation was unattractive for them. From that point the market moved up a total of 3%, and then fell a maximum of 15%. It is currently still down 10% from its peak. I still think the risk/reward for the buy and hold investor is poor and one day the 10% drop will be seen as nothing. At some point the market must fall hard. The timing is unknowable, but the eventuality is certain.

Successful traders and investors understand that the same strategy will not always work in all markets; otherwise there would only be one good strategy! Buy and hold was great when the country was growing quickly, as populations grew and productivity increased, but that is not our current world. Even now, when we are still near all-time highs in the major indexes, the market has only yielded about 2% a year, compounded, over the last 15 years, and very few financial advisers, mutual funds or retail traders have even kept up with the market. Given today’s valuations, this number is likely to be lower over the next 10-20 years. This does not mean a general slow market increase, but wild swings up and down that will ruin many a financial future. It will also cause havoc in our nation’s public pension system.

In this type of market, it is critical to be flexible, to have different tools. Buying and holding stocks for the long-term is likely to end in tears for most people. Check out this week’s show to understand why, and learn a better way:

As a note, in this show (recorded about 1:30am MT on 2/3/16), we also previewed Friday’s jobs report. Regardless of the number, even if we get a quick bounce, I think it will be short-lived. In the show I explain why.

Given this week’s topic we are going to be doing a special class, “When Buy and Hold Fails”. We will discuss alternatives to just hoping everything works out in your favor. If you would like free tickets, call 84-48-Income (844.846.2663) and tell them that you read about it on the Next Week In Stocks website. I hope to see you there!

Click Here For Free CD Offer!

If you would like to submit a question to the show, or to give us feedback, please send an email to:  phoenix@tradingacademy.com. Also, check out our sister show, “The Right Side Of The Trade” on the following stations:

◾Money Radio 1510 and 99.3: Thursday and Saturday at noon

◾1100 KFNX: Sunday at 11am and Wednesday at 3pm

Of course, you can always find “Next Week In Stocks” on:

◾550 KFYI: Saturday at 1pm and Sunday at 4am

October 31, 2015: Danger, Will Robinson!

This is a tricky market…

For a long period, the market was moving up and to fight the Fed was to tilt at windmills. Then in May of this year the market started to rollover and was down for a couple of months. But, like a Phoenix, it is again rising from the ashes.

But, here is the problem. This is all Fed driven, once again. The fundamentals of the US and world economies are terrible and the external shock risks are huge. That said, the Fed (despite the notes released on 10/28) is unlikely to raise until 2017 (in my opinion). If the market comes to believe that the Fed will hold off on an increase, the market could well go higher. If it thinks it will raise, everything could unravel quickly. If it does raise, the markets could unravel.

So, what’s a boy to do? We are at an inflection point and you need to be prepared to react quickly, no matter which way the market goes. You need up market and down market strategies. In today’s show, we discuss all of these ideas. Because of the complexity of today’s situation, I am going to be teaching a special one day class on this topic a couple times in November. If you would like free tickets to the class, call 84-48-Income (844.846.2663) and tell them that you read about it on the Next Week In Stocks website. Hope to see you there!

Click Here For Free CD Offer!

If you would like to submit a question to the show, or to give us feedback, please send an email to:  phoenix@tradingacademy.com. Also, check out our sister show, “The Right Side Of The Trade” on the following stations:

◾Money Radio 1510 and 99.3: Thursday’s and Saturday’s at noon

◾1100 KFNX: Sunday’s and Tuesday’s at noon

Of course, you can always find “Next Week In Stocks” on:

◾550 KFYI: Saturday at 1pm and Sunday at 4am

September 5, 2015: Psyched Out…

This show was recorded on Wednesday night, September 2nd, at about 10pm. The market was up, both during the day and after hours, and there was talk of us having “reached the bottom”. I don’t think so. It appears that the psychology of the market has changed and that the selling will continue.

In the show we talked about how to interpret the market’s reaction to Friday’s jobs report (two days after this was recorded). The suspicion was that the market would likely move down (which it did), regardless of whether the report was good or bad, but that the key was to watch for the follow through next week. I suspect it will continue to be weak. That said, there could be quite a bit of volatility between now and the Fed meeting and perhaps even some strong rallies. I would look for rallies as opportunities to buy puts and to short, rather than looking for dips to buy. Learn more here:

On the radio it can be difficult to explain these ideas clearly so I am going to personally be doing a couple more special classes on this topic. If you would like free tickets, call 84-48-Income (844.846.2663) and tell them that you read about the class on the Next Week In Stocks website. Hope to see you there!

Click Here For Free CD Offer!

If you would like to submit a question to the show, or to give us feedback, please send an email to:  phoenix@tradingacademy.com. Also, check out our sister show, “The Right Side Of The Trade” on the following stations:

◾960 The Patriot: Sunday at 10am

◾Money Radio 1510 and 99.3: Thursday’s and Saturday’s at noon

◾1100 KFNX: Sunday’s and Tuesday’s at noon

◾Of course, you can always find “Next Week In Stocks” on:

◾550 KFYI: Saturday at 1pm and Sunday at 4am

April 4, 2015: Not My Job

This show was recorded very early Friday morning before the jobs report came out. We speculated in the show that if the numbers were close to honest that the number would be bad (it was), but it is still probably worse than reported. In this show we looked at a variety of economic reports that show that the economy is slowing and that stocks are very overvalued. They can still go up, but one day, gravity will come in to play and it won’t be pretty. We also reiterated our view that we may well enter a recession this year, and if we measured inflation honestly, that we have probably been in one for years.

As we have often discussed, there is nothing “real” about this market, it is all being driven by The Fed. The bad jobs report may convince investors that they are going to stay on the sidelines longer than some expect. If so, the market may move up next week. Watch Monday, and especially Tuesday, to see where sentiment is. If the market goes down, we may keep moving that way for a while, but my suspicion is that it will bounce sideways for a bit.

We also spent some time looking at current events in the US and around the world. The world is heating up outside of Phoenix too.

Happy Easter, Passover, whatever else may be appropriate, and enjoy the show!

Click Here For Free CD Offer!

If you would like to submit a question to the show, or to give us feedback, please send an email to: phoenix@tradingacademy.com. Also, check out our sister show, “The Right Side Of The Trade” on the following stations:

◾550 KFYI: Sunday at 4am

◾910 KGME: Sunday at 4am

◾960 The Patriot: Sunday at 10am

◾Money Radio 1510 and 99.3: Thursday at noon and Saturday 10am

◾1100 KFNX: Thursday at 4pm and Sunday at noon

◾910 KGME: Saturday at 6:30am

Of course, you can always find Next Week In Stocks on:

◾550 KFYI: Saturday at 1pm

◾1230 KFYI 2: Saturday at noon and Sunday at 10am