This week we took a look at the election and what it means going forward. Overall, we expect that nothing will really change. No Congress is a match for a man with a pen, a phone and a mission… That said, we spent some time analyzing the President’s speech before his press conference on Wednesday. Warning, this analysis is not appropriate for anyone without a sense of humor.
From a market perspective, it looks like up for the rest of the year, barring some major unforeseeable event (likely on US soil. At this point I’m not sure there is any world news that can slow this market down). That said, you really need to be focused on protecting against the unforeseeable, and for this Puts are generally the best option (no pun intended). They are really cheap right now and will probably get cheaper between now and the end of the year. Picking up a few Puts for speculation on a down move early next year might not be a bad idea either. In fact, I would be very concerned about this market after the first of the year. I expect a weak Christmas shopping season, weak Q4 earnings due to the strong increase in the value of the dollar we are seeing, the potential of a Sears or JC Penney bankruptcy/reorganization filing in Q1, as well as other factors that could start a large down move. Make sure you buy your insurance before the hurricane comes!
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