All Quiet On The Western Front, Or Eye Of The Hurricane?

Complacency is back with a vengeance. The VIX is again below 14 and the AAII sentiment survey shows the Bears have gone into hibernation. Most US Indexes are at or very near all-time highs. The question: Are all of our problems solved, or is this the calm before the storm? Spoiler alert, from my perspective, nothing has changed:

• The economy has no real growth, what little GDP growth we have simply comes from borrowing future income to try to make today look better, which will eventually make tomorrow look worse
• The increase in the markets is largely, if not entirely, driven by an unsustainable Fed policy of free-money
• Most of the world is heading toward slower growth, if not recession
• The Euro is still toast in the longer-term and when it dies, it will not go quietly into that good night
• We have no possibility of making good on all of the promises we have made to the American public. As we age as a population, this will become more apparent; with severe negative consequences for individuals and our society. (As a note, in this recording we predicted riots in Greece once people saw that nothing had changed with the new government. They started the next day. They will get worse.)

All this said, the storm may be moving very slowly, the eye may be large, but the storm will come. Can the market go higher? Of course, but the risk/reward of this market continues to become more tenuous for the average retail trader, the opportunity for the educated continues to grow. Check out how and why here: 

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If you would like to submit a question to the show, or to give us feedback, please send an email to: phoenix@tradingacademy.com. Also, check out our sister show, “The Right Side Of The Trade” on the following stations:

550 KFYI: Sunday at 4am

910 KGME: Sunday at 4am

960 The Patriot: Sunday at 10am

Money Radio 1510 and 99.3: Thursday at noon and Saturday 10am

1100 KFNX: Thursday at 4pm and Sunday at noon

910 KGME: Saturday at 6:30am

Of course, you can always find Next Week In Stocks on:

550 KFYI: Saturday at 1pm

1230 KFYI Business: Saturday at noon and Sunday at 10am

 

 

February 1, 2014: The State Of The Union

Another audible week. We focused on the first few lines of the State Of The Union address and put them into context:

• Today in America, a teacher spent extra time with a student who needed it, and did her part to lift America’s graduation rate to its highest level in more than three decades.
• An entrepreneur flipped on the lights in her tech startup, and did her part to add to the more than eight million new jobs our businesses have created over the past four years.
• An autoworker fine-tuned some of the best, most fuel-efficient cars in the world, and did his part to help America wean itself off foreign oil.
• A farmer prepared for the spring after the strongest five-year stretch of farm exports in our history.

We did our part and revealed the hokum behind each of these statements (or at least as much as we could in an hour). We also talked about the recent market volatility. Check it out, below!

If you would like to submit a question to the show, or to give us feedback, please send an email to: phoenix@tradingacademy.com. Also, check out our sister show, “The Right Side Of The Trade” on the following stations:

◾550 KFYI: Sundays at 4am
◾960 The Patriot: Noon Saturdays and 8pm Sundays
◾1510 Money Radio: Tuesdays 9am
◾1100 KFNX: Thursdays at 4pm

Listen Here:

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February 2, 2013: Complacency Revisited

This week we updated our complacency indicators from last week, and added some new analysis. There is still no fear in the market. This may continue for some time, but it always ends badly. We also spent some time looking at the dollar.

Listen or Download Here:  NWIS 02032013

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