August 27, 2016: Cristal Ball…

Warren Buffet once said, “I try to buy stock in businesses that are so wonderful that an idiot can run them. Because sooner or later, one will.” I would say the same thing about countries. This election and its aftermath is going to be a nightmare…

Today we pulled out the old crystal ball. We spent a little time talking about the deteriorating finances of the country, then we looked at what was coming. We talked about the Fed, stocks, bonds, oil and a little gold. In general, this market may hold up through the election, even through next spring (it also might not), but then it could get pretty ugly.

For more specifics, check out this week’s show here:

Given this week’s topic I am going to be doing a special class, “How And When To Use Options For Income, Wealth And Protection”. I will be teaching this class personally.If you would like free tickets to the class, call 84-48-Income (844.846.2663) and tell them that you read about it on the Next Week In Stocks website. I hope to see you there!

If you would like to submit a question to the show, or to give us feedback, please send an email to:  phoenix@tradingacademy.com. Also, check out our sister show, “The Right Side Of The Trade” on the following stations:

◾Money Radio 1510 and 99.3: Thursdays and Saturdays at noon

◾1100 KFNX:  Thursdays at 4pm

Of course, you can always find “Next Week In Stocks” on:

◾550 KFYI: Saturdays at 1pm and Sundays at 4am

May 12, 2016: “What Are You Going To Do About It”

Last June 13th on this show, I said that the S&P500 appeared to be topping out. That has turned out to be accurate. The market is net down about 1% since then, but it has been down as much as 15% and never up more than about 1%. I have been reflecting on a question I often ask applicants to the Academy. “If you knew the market was going to go down before it happened, would that be useful”. People inevitably answer yes. I think the answer is no. The problem is that people don’t know what to do when it goes down, they just keep doing what they’ve always done (buy and hold) and hope that this time it is different and that it won’t be that bad. The reality is that you need totally different skills in a down or sideways market, skills that almost no retail traders have. This is why so many investors fail to reach their goals. If they get lucky and move out of stocks before a downturn they may be okay, if they don’t, they are devastated. Plus, if they move out and sit on the sidelines, they have no ability to make money as the market falls.

Historically, moving to fixed income (bonds, CD’s, etc.) has been an option, but not today. Yields are simply too low. If you invest $500,000 at 2% yields, you will earn less than $30/day. That isn’t going to pay many bills.

Given current valuations, the market is unlikely to return more than 1-2%/year over the next 10-20 years (some years it will crash, others will soar, but net/net, it probably won’t go up much, although it could fall and not recover). Interest rates are unlikely to go up for years, so “safer” investments won’t be an alternative either.

This week we talked about why this is my forecast and what skills you will need to prosper if I am right. We specifically addressed a recent column that suggested our only problem is that people are saving to much and spending too little. I think this is missing the point…

Check the show out here: 

Given this week’s topic I am going to be doing a special class, “Achieving Your Financial Goals In The 21st Century”. I will be teaching this class personally.If you would like free tickets to the class, call 84-48-Income (844.846.2663) and tell them that you read about it on the Next Week In Stocks website. I hope to see you there!

Click Here For Free CD Offer!

If you would like to submit a question to the show, or to give us feedback, please send an email to:  phoenix@tradingacademy.com. Also, check out our sister show, “The Right Side Of The Trade” on the following stations:

◾Money Radio 1510 and 99.3: Thursday and Saturday at noon

◾1100 KFNX:  Wednesday at 3pm

Of course, you can always find “Next Week In Stocks” on:

◾550 KFYI: Saturday at 1pm and Sunday at 4am

April 2, 2016: Fundamentally, We’re Screwed…

This week, we got back to basics. We discussed the fundamentals of the economy, the market and the political race. The fundamentals don’t look strong for any of them…

The show was recorded on 3/28, before Fed Chairperson Yellen’s testimony on 3/29 and the jobs report on 4/1. On the show we laid out 2065 as the key level to watch on the S&P 500. As of this writing (3/31), it is still holding. The market will do what it is going to do, but I don’t think it has much more upside. The close on 4/1 and the Monday follow-through will tell the tale. Without a solid close above 2065, we may be looking at another leg down. It is hard to see any catalyst for the upside outside of a potential weak jobs report that keeps the Fed on the sidelines. Also, the buyback blackout period we are now entering suggests further weakness.

Check out this week’s show here:

Given this week’s topic I am going to be doing a special class, “Achieving Your Financial Goals In A No Growth, Negative Interest Rate World”. I will be teaching this class personally.If you would like free tickets to the class, call 84-48-Income (844.846.2663) and tell them that you read about it on the Next Week In Stocks website. I hope to see you there!

Click Here For Free CD Offer!

If you would like to submit a question to the show, or to give us feedback, please send an email to:  phoenix@tradingacademy.com. Also, check out our sister show, “The Right Side Of The Trade” on the following stations:

◾Money Radio 1510 and 99.3: Thursday and Saturday at noon

◾1100 KFNX:  Wednesday at 3pm

Of course, you can always find “Next Week In Stocks” on:

◾550 KFYI: Saturday at 1pm and Sunday at 4am

March 19, 2016: The Song Still Remains The Same

Well, the Fed didn’t raise rates this month. If anything, they were more dovish in their announcement than expected. Given what they call “data” and where we are with their unemployment and inflation numbers, it is hard to see rates going up anytime soon. That said, they may make some hawkish comments over the coming weeks about June, but I think they know that that could hit the market pretty hard, so it is difficult to know their next steps.

I have said for some time that I didn’t see how they could raise this year, but they have created that expectation. To save face, maybe there will be one or two increases this year, but I wouldn’t be surprised by zero. If they do raise, I would suspect the market would take it very poorly.

The market went up after the meeting, but not a lot. Earnings and revenues continue to deteriorate. Manufacturing numbers suggest a recession may be here or coming. If the fundamentals ever matter again, the market will be in real trouble. Watch 2050-2065 on the S&P. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a quick move up to there, but the market may then pullback when it happens. A move above 2,100 on the S&P could provide some more opportunities for puts.

We are getting close to earnings season. When it comes, there will be a lull in stock buybacks. Buybacks are the only buying pushing the market higher right now. It is likely the market will fall over the next few weeks as this moves through the market as well.

So, what does all this mean? It means be careful. I believe there is more downside risk than upside potential in the market right now, but I could be wrong. My concern for most people is that if I’m right, they don’t really know what to do when markets decline and when the market does take a hit, they are really going to suffer. It is why it is so important to know what to do before the market declines. We talked about all of these topics this week. Check out this week’s show here:

Given this week’s topic I am going to be doing a special class, “A Smarter Way To Invest”. If you would like free tickets to the class, call 84-48-Income (844.846.2663) and tell them that you read about it on the Next Week In Stocks website. I hope to see you there!

Click Here For Free CD Offer!

If you would like to submit a question to the show, or to give us feedback, please send an email to:  phoenix@tradingacademy.com. Also, check out our sister show, “The Right Side Of The Trade” on the following stations:

◾Money Radio 1510 and 99.3: Thursday and Saturday at noon

◾1100 KFNX:  Wednesday at 3pm

Of course, you can always find “Next Week In Stocks” on:

◾550 KFYI: Saturday at 1pm and Sunday at 4am

February 13, 2016: Gellin’ Like Janet Yellen

This week we looked at Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s testimony before the House on February 10th (the show was recorded that evening). Most of the focus was an analysis of her comments on the jobs market, but we also touched on other parts of her testimony, and had a general discussion about the concept of “The Fatal Conceit”, the idea that experts can guide anything (like the economy) better than the market. (Short answer, they can’t.)

In general, I don’t see anything taking this market higher in the short term, on a sustainable basis. There will be rallies, but the trend is still down. One day we will do more QE and/or move to negative interest rates and this may change, but for right now it is hard to see the catalyst for a strong, extended move up. In the show we also talked about some key levels to watch in the S&P. Check it out in more detail here:

Given this week’s topic we are going to be doing a special class, “Profiting On the Downside”. We will discuss alternatives to just hoping that the market goes back up. If you would like free tickets, call 84-48-Income (844.846.2663) and tell them that you read about it on the Next Week In Stocks website. I hope to see you there!

Click Here For Free CD Offer!

If you would like to submit a question to the show, or to give us feedback, please send an email to:  phoenix@tradingacademy.com. Also, check out our sister show, “The Right Side Of The Trade” on the following stations:

◾Money Radio 1510 and 99.3: Thursday and Saturday at noon

◾1100 KFNX: Sunday at 11am and Wednesday at 3pm

Of course, you can always find “Next Week In Stocks” on:

◾550 KFYI: Saturday at 1pm and Sunday at 4am

January 23, 2016: Cashin Out?

Over the last couple of years on this show I have covered a wide range of topics that I thought were relevant to your investments and life. This week I read an interview with Art Cashin, a 50+ year floor veteran on the NYSE which covered many of these same topics. In this week’s show I discussed his perspective and provided some additional thoughts of my own. Some of it is practical advice to understand the mood of the market, some of it is more useful in understanding the real weakness in the market and the economy that is still not apparent (yes, it can get worse).

Check it out here:

Given this week’s topic we are going to be doing a special class, “Protection and Profit in Any Market”. We will discuss not just surviving, but profiting from both up and down markets; we are likely to see both. If you would like free tickets, call 84-48-Income (844.846.2663) and tell them that you read about it on the Next Week In Stocks website. I hope to see you there!

Click Here For Free CD Offer!

If you would like to submit a question to the show, or to give us feedback, please send an email to:  phoenix@tradingacademy.com. Also, check out our sister show, “The Right Side Of The Trade” on the following stations:

◾Money Radio 1510 and 99.3: Thursday and Saturday at noon

◾1100 KFNX: Sunday at 11am and Wednesday at 3pm

Of course, you can always find “Next Week In Stocks” on:

◾550 KFYI: Saturday at 1pm and Sunday at 4am

January 2, 2016: Après Moi, Le Déluge

There is some controversy on the origin and meaning of the title of this week’s show. I am going to go with the alternatives that best fit what I am trying to say this week…

Therefore I am going to go with King Louis XV of France as the author and his estimation that after his death that chaos would ensue.  In fact, 15 years after his death the French Revolution took place and the world was never the same.

It seems fitting that like Louis XV, MMXV (2015) may be the last year of relative peace in the market for awhile. As I have pointed out many times, I have not generally been in the gloom and doom camp in the short-term; however, I believe we will ultimately face a 50-70% drop in the markets at some unknowable point. In 2013 I thought the market would move higher (it did). Same in 2014, but I became more concerned. In late 2014 I predicted volatility would probably increase Q1 of 2015 (it did) and I thought the market was beginning to weaken noticeably in May 2015 (it was).

Here is what I see now. Earnings are dropping, revenues are dropping, commodity prices are falling, the EM countries have huge debt problems (as do the DM countries, but they have more time before they hit the wall), the dollar is rising (which will exacerbate all of the foregoing problems) and much of the world is in chaos. The one thing that I believe has moved this market higher was free money from the Fed, triggering record M&A, stock buybacks, investors buying on margin as well as taking away investors’ alternatives for generating returns (such as bonds). That is now going away. As I have said many times, it isn’t  the .25% increase that is important, it is the message it sends that this game is over, and the smart money will find another one to play. Given all that, what can drive this market substantially higher? In my opinion, nothing outside of direct Fed or other government buying to support the market through the election. However, that could happen and the market may tread water for another year, so you have to be prepared for anything in 2016.

In this week’s show we focused on these ideas in more detail. We also talked about how the wave of M&A this year would likely lead to downsizing of hundreds of thousands of people with decent jobs next year. We discussed how we are likely to see very low rates of return in the markets for the next 10-20 years, and how this would expose the state and local pensions as much more underfunded than people pretend they are right now. Most of these pensions assume that the market will return over 7.5% a year through infinity, even to reach the shortfall levels they are at now, and these returns are very unlikely. As an example, the State of Illinois pensions are supposedly 42% funded (which isn’t great), but that assumes 8% annual returns. If I’m right, they are probably 20-25% funded. Where is the rest of the money coming from?

Speaking of where is the money… I have been warning about Puerto Rico defaulting for over 18 months. They are already technically in default, but it looks like it is about to get much worse. This is just the tip of a very large iceberg.

The bottom-line is this. This market is hollow and with weakening fundamentals and the Fed starting to pull the punch bowl, we are getting closer to the day of reckoning. That doesn’t mean it has to happen this week or even this year, but it must happen, and you need to prepare before the crash comes; because it could come at any time.

Check out this week’s show here:

Given this week’s topic we are going to be doing a special class, “Buy your umbrella before the rains come”. We will discuss not just surviving, but profiting from both up and down markets; we are likely to see both. If you would like free tickets, call 84-48-Income (844.846.2663) and tell them that you read about it on the Next Week In Stocks website. I hope to see you there!

Click Here For Free CD Offer!

If you would like to submit a question to the show, or to give us feedback, please send an email to:  phoenix@tradingacademy.com. Also, check out our sister show, “The Right Side Of The Trade” on the following stations:

◾Money Radio 1510 and 99.3: Thursday and Saturday at noon

◾1100 KFNX: Sunday at 11am and Wednesday at 3pm

Of course, you can always find “Next Week In Stocks” on:

◾550 KFYI: Saturday at 1pm and Sunday at 4am