December 3, 2016: What The Phoenix Housing Tells Us About The Economy

Kind of wide ranging today. The market right now is at an inflection point. Will it drop, or is there another leg higher. No one knows. So what do you do? Prepare for both.

We also discussed a recent Wall Street Journal article about what the Phoenix market says about the national economy. WSJ says it means the national fundamentals are strong. I drew a different conclusion…

Also got in a Big Lebowski reference…

Check it out here:

Given this week’s topic I am going to be doing a special class, “Making Money, Regardless Of Market Direction”. I will be teaching this class personally. If you would like free tickets to the class, call 84-48-Income (844.846.2663) and tell them that you read about it on the Next Week In Stocks website. I hope to see you there!

If you would like to submit a question to the show, or to give us feedback, please send an email to:  phoenix@tradingacademy.com. Also, check out our sister show, “The Right Side Of The Trade” on the following stations:

◾Money Radio 1510 and 99.3: Thursdays and Saturdays at noon

◾1100 KFNX:  Thursdays at 3pm

◾960 The Patriot:  Saturdays at 1pm

◾1360 KPXQ:  Saturdays at noon

Of course, you can always find “Next Week In Stocks” on:

◾550 KFYI: Saturdays at 1pm and Sundays at 4am

October 3, 2015: Fasten Your Seatbelts, We Are Expecting Turbulence Ahead…

This show was recorded on Wednesday evening, September 30. Today, Russia started bombing Syria, at least 17 bombs went off in one city in China, all Fed regions reported negative growth for the first time since 2009 and ADP reported that we have lost manufacturing jobs year-to-date, also for the first time since 2009. There is an Emerging Market crisis on the horizon, the EU is at risk, China is slowing down precipitously, the world is likely headed to recession and everyone wonders when the Fed will raise rates… Again, I don’t see the Fed raising before 2017 at the earliest and easing/negative interest rates are more likely than an increase. That said, if they do raise, lookout. It could get ugly in a hurry in both the stock and housing markets.

Overall the market continues to weaken. Watch the response to this week’s jobs numbers. My guess is that even if you get an initial bounce, it won’t hold and the down move will start again next week. But you may not even get a bounce.

Knowing how to invest in this type of environment is key. If you would like to learn more about what to do now, I am going to be teaching a special one day class: “How to trade and invest in a volatile market”. If you would like free tickets, call 84-48-Income (844.846.2663) and tell them that you read about the class on the Next Week In Stocks website. Hope to see you there!

Click here to check it out:

Click Here For Free CD Offer!

If you would like to submit a question to the show, or to give us feedback, please send an email to:  phoenix@tradingacademy.com. Also, check out our sister show, “The Right Side Of The Trade” on the following stations:

◾Money Radio 1510 and 99.3: Thursday’s and Saturday’s at noon

◾1100 KFNX: Sunday’s and Tuesday’s at noon

◾Of course, you can always find “Next Week In Stocks” on:

◾550 KFYI: Saturday at 1pm and Sunday at 4am

May 2, 2015: Does The Fed Know About Shrinkage?

Last week we suggested that GDP growth for Q1 was likely to be weak, maybe even negative, if the numbers weren’t cooked. GDP came in this week at .2% growth vs. a forecast of 1% and everyone’s blaming the weather. Unless our entire economy now consists of clam chowder and Boston Baked Beans, it’s not the weather. In most of the country temperatures were above normal this winter.

If it weren’t for increasing inventories, and the Fed’s belief that prices fell last quarter, GDP would have been negative. In fact, on a per capita basis we were still negative. Things are slowing down.

Consensus economic forecast for Q2 GDP is 3.4% as of today. Goldman Sachs has it at 3%, the Atlanta Fed at .9%. I think they are all potentially optimistic. I would look for below 1% growth for Q2, below 2% for the year and potentially a revision to negative for Q1. With all that, the market may well go higher, since the Fed is less likely to act.

This show was taped before the market opened Friday. I said in the show that Friday would be important. If the market fell, it may well continue to drop, but it may well get a bounce. It did finish significantly higher and may continue up, but I still think there is more downside to come at some point, so be prepared.

As a note, in our April 22 class we put on the SPY Put trade that we have discussed many times on the show. We closed it out for a 25% profit on 4/30, so the trade is still working. If you want to know more, check out this week’s show here!

Click Here For Free CD Offer!

If you would like to submit a question to the show, or to give us feedback, please send an email to: phoenix@tradingacademy.com. Also, check out our sister show, “The Right Side Of The Trade” on the following stations:

◾550 KFYI: Sunday at 4am

◾910 KGME: Sunday at 4am

◾960 The Patriot: Sunday at 10am

◾Money Radio 1510 and 99.3: Thursday at noon and Saturday 10am

◾1100 KFNX: Thursday at 4pm and Sunday at noon

◾910 KGME: Saturday at 6:30am

Of course, you can always find Next Week In Stocks on:

◾550 KFYI: Saturday at 1pm and Sunday at 2pm

◾1230 KFYI 2: Saturday at noon and Sunday at 10am

“Well, Stanley Ann, This is Another Nice Mess You’ve Gotten Us Into…”

This is some market! The Investors Intelligence survey and the VIX show a total lack of fear in the market. The Russell is trading at 85 times the trailing 12 months earnings 19 times next year’s forecasted earnings. This economy must really be getting ready to take off! Markets are at all time highs, unless you count inflation or look at individual stocks, where the average stock in the NASDAQ is down 24% from its 50 week high and even the average S&P 500 stock is down 8%.

On the other hand, the Middle East is on fire. Iraq is done, the only question is who ends up with what piece. Back in February (I believe) we talked about how Russia could pay us back for the sanctions. My hypothesis was that the way they could best hurt us and help themselves was to stir up trouble in the Middle East.  The best way for them to generate cash is to get oil prices up. This has the added benefit of really screwing up our economy. To make this happen, just ship some extra weapons down there, sit back and wait for the fun to begin!

I have no info that Russia is involved in the current conflict in Iraq, but we know they have been supporting the governments in Syria and Iran. Iran is now talking about getting involved in Iraq (if they aren’t already). Saudi Arabia may well be supporting elements of ISIS and the whole thing could turn into a proxy war between the two. If Iran wants to gain an advantage, sending some Hezbollah members to Saudi to work on their pipelines could be just the ticket. Of course there is always the defenseless Kuwait if you are looking to drive prices up and distract people. (BTW, there are reports now of Russian tanks in the Ukraine. Whatever happened to the Ukraine? That story got dropped faster than, well Fast and Furious (or the VA, IRS, Benghazi…). We also predicted this…

Yes, more domestic production and Keystone would help, but they are not magic bullets. Easing off on some EPA regulations would be faster and more useful. A note, saying this means that I want unchecked pollution in the country is a straw man, let’s talk about tradeoffs like adults.

Maybe this all blows over, maybe it is no big deal, but these types of events are unpredictable. Right now there is a ton of risk in this market that is not (in my opinion) being priced in. Be careful! To learn more, check out today’s show!

Listen Here:  

 Click Here For Free CD Offer!

If you would like to submit a question to the show, or to give us feedback, please send an email to: phoenix@tradingacademy.com. Also, check out our sister show, “The Right Side Of The Trade” on the following stations:

◾550 KFYI: Sunday at 4am

◾910 KGME: Sunday at 4am

◾1510 Money Radio: Tuesday 9am and Saturday 7am

◾1100 KFNX: Thursday at 4pm and Sunday at noon

910 KGME: Saturday at 6:30am

Of course, you can always find Next Week In Stocks on:

◾550 KFYI: Saturday at 1pm

1230 KFYI Business: Saturday at noon

1230 KFYI Business: Sunday at 10am

May 31, 2014: Who Are You Going to Believe, Me or Your Own Eyes?

Well, another GDP report is out and the news isn’t good. Q1 2014 now supposedly has declined 1% vs. a previous estimate of growth of .1%. However, we believe this is an anomaly and next quarter…

It is all nonsense! The adjustment factors that are used overwhelm the data (lots of noise, not much signal). The inflation adjustments are artificially low. GDP doesn’t differentiate between useful and useless spending. I could go on (and in the show I did for about an hour).  But here’s the thing, we run an entire economy based on a useless and largely made-up number. This is how screwed up this economic policy is! This week we compared GDP to some other numbers, none of which look all that good. We also looked at our “Straddle Market”, lots of pressure going up, but lots of risk to go down, and revisited our GLD straddle trade (up about 20% in 2 weeks at the time of taping). Check it out!

Listen Here:  

 Click Here For Free CD Offer!

If you would like to submit a question to the show, or to give us feedback, please send an email to: phoenix@tradingacademy.com. Also, check out our sister show, “The Right Side Of The Trade” on the following stations:

◾550 KFYI: Sunday at 4am

◾1510 Money Radio: Tuesday 9am and Saturday 7am

◾1100 KFNX: Thursday at 4pm and Sunday at noon

Of course, you can always find Next Week In Stocks on:

1230 KFYI Business: Saturday at noon

◾550 KFYI: Saturday at 1pm