April 9, 2016: Demographics, Debt and Division

The market has still been unable to close above 2065 on the S&P, suggesting we could be in for more weakness. This week we talked about a trade that I put on to take advantage of this. We also discussed how important it was to know what to do in a market that did not look like it was going to just go straight up from here.

The title of the show relates to three issues that I think will doom us to no real growth for years, if not decades to come. Without growth, it will be hard for most people to achieve their financial goals, and buy and hold sure won’t do it.

To learn more about how to handle what’s coming, check out this week’s show here:

Given this week’s topic we are going to be doing a special class, “Achieving Your Financial Goals In A No Growth World”. If you would like free tickets to the class, call 84-48-Income (844.846.2663) and tell them that you read about it on the Next Week In Stocks website. I hope to see you there!

Click Here For Free CD Offer!

If you would like to submit a question to the show, or to give us feedback, please send an email to:  phoenix@tradingacademy.com. Also, check out our sister show, “The Right Side Of The Trade” on the following stations:

Money Radio 1510 and 99.3: Thursday and Saturday at noon

1100 KFNX:  Wednesday at 3pm

Of course, you can always find “Next Week In Stocks” on:

550 KFYI: Saturday at 1pm and Sunday at 4am

February 13, 2016: Gellin’ Like Janet Yellen

This week we looked at Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s testimony before the House on February 10th (the show was recorded that evening). Most of the focus was an analysis of her comments on the jobs market, but we also touched on other parts of her testimony, and had a general discussion about the concept of “The Fatal Conceit”, the idea that experts can guide anything (like the economy) better than the market. (Short answer, they can’t.)

In general, I don’t see anything taking this market higher in the short term, on a sustainable basis. There will be rallies, but the trend is still down. One day we will do more QE and/or move to negative interest rates and this may change, but for right now it is hard to see the catalyst for a strong, extended move up. In the show we also talked about some key levels to watch in the S&P. Check it out in more detail here:

Given this week’s topic we are going to be doing a special class, “Profiting On the Downside”. We will discuss alternatives to just hoping that the market goes back up. If you would like free tickets, call 84-48-Income (844.846.2663) and tell them that you read about it on the Next Week In Stocks website. I hope to see you there!

Click Here For Free CD Offer!

If you would like to submit a question to the show, or to give us feedback, please send an email to:  phoenix@tradingacademy.com. Also, check out our sister show, “The Right Side Of The Trade” on the following stations:

Money Radio 1510 and 99.3: Thursday and Saturday at noon

1100 KFNX: Sunday at 11am and Wednesday at 3pm

Of course, you can always find “Next Week In Stocks” on:

550 KFYI: Saturday at 1pm and Sunday at 4am

January 16, 2016: Lies My TV Told Me

We are constantly being bombarded with messages from the media designed to separate us from our money. This week we looked at a few of them, talked a little SOTU and revisited the market, which continues to fall. As we discussed, the market could get some big bounces, but remains very weak.

We talked a little more as well about the damage that debt is doing to our future. As we have discussed before, debt is a spending of future income. We have now spent so much of our future income, there is very little left (if any). This means it will be very difficult for us to grow for years or decades to come without major future increases in debt to cover up the underlying weakness.  There is another side to this as well that we discussed this week. If debt is the spending of future income, if future income is significantly below current projections, the debt problem will be even worse. It will be below current projections for at least two reasons. First, the assumed GDP growth rates are way too high (and largely measuring the wrong things). Second, income from things like pensions, annuities, mutual funds, etc., are all too high because they assume a stock market averaging an ~8% return a year, which is likely to be wildly optimistic.

Happy New Year!

Check it out here:

Given this week’s topic we are going to be doing a special class, “Managing Your Finances Like A Pro”. We will discuss not just surviving, but profiting from both up and down markets; we are likely to see both. If you would like free tickets, call 84-48-Income (844.846.2663) and tell them that you read about it on the Next Week In Stocks website. I hope to see you there!

Click Here For Free CD Offer!

If you would like to submit a question to the show, or to give us feedback, please send an email to:  phoenix@tradingacademy.com. Also, check out our sister show, “The Right Side Of The Trade” on the following stations:

Money Radio 1510 and 99.3: Thursday and Saturday at noon

1100 KFNX: Sunday at 11am and Wednesday at 3pm

Of course, you can always find “Next Week In Stocks” on:

550 KFYI: Saturday at 1pm and Sunday at 4am

January 9, 2016: Now, What?

I was talking to a student today about her investing philosophy. She is a classic “buy and hold” investor who did a great job of buying Apple at the bottom in 2009. Depending on the exact point at which she bought it, she might have had a profit of 100% or more over the last 6 years.

However, over the past several months, Apple has fallen more than 25% and could fall substantially more. My question to her was, “when are you going to sell?” She didn’t really know. This is not uncommon among retail traders, but if you want to succeed in the markets you must know when you are going to sell, either because you have hit your target or because you have been proven wrong.

In this show I contrasted the “retail” approach of “buy and hope” with the professional approach of planning a trade and executing that plan faithfully. I went back to the example of another person who we profiled in a previous show who purchased EMES at ~$39, rode it to $140, then when we met still had it in the $40’s. He was confident it would come back and was hanging on. As of today, it was less than $4. I don’t know if he still has it, but without a plan he turned a 250%+ profit into a 90% loss. You have to know when to sell.

I compared this approach with my two most recent trades. I used professional supply and demand zones for determining areas to buy and sell, as well predefined profit targets. I used a leveraged instrument (put options) designed to make money when the market goes down. One of these trades returned 20% in 3 days, the other 68% in 14 days. Especially in this market, you are going to need to be nimble in your trading and you will need to know how to make money when the market goes down.

Check out this week’s show here:

Given this week’s topic we are going to be doing a special class, “Managing Your Finances Like A Pro”. We will discuss not just surviving, but profiting from both up and down markets; we are likely to see both. If you would like free tickets, call 84-48-Income (844.846.2663) and tell them that you read about it on the Next Week In Stocks website. I hope to see you there!

Click Here For Free CD Offer!

If you would like to submit a question to the show, or to give us feedback, please send an email to:  phoenix@tradingacademy.com. Also, check out our sister show, “The Right Side Of The Trade” on the following stations:

Money Radio 1510 and 99.3: Thursday and Saturday at noon

1100 KFNX: Sunday at 11am and Wednesday at 3pm

Of course, you can always find “Next Week In Stocks” on:

550 KFYI: Saturday at 1pm and Sunday at 4am

 

December 5, 2015: The Long And Short Of It

This show was recorded on December 2, 2015. On this day, three members of the Fed came out and suggested that rates would move higher at their meeting on December 16th. I’m still not convinced they will raise rates, but they have dug themselves such a large hole by convincing everyone that they are going to do it that they might just follow through. I don’t think that the data between now and then will really make any difference, so we’ll just have to see what they actually do. If the Fed does raise, the market could take a hit over the next few months, as we have discussed many times. Not because the .25 likely point increase is that important, but because of the signal that will be sent that the easy money is over.

This is one of the areas of short-term concern. There are others we discussed in the show, but there are also long-term concerns. If history is any guide, given where stock valuations are currently, we should expect stock market gains of 1% or less over the next 20 years (after inflation). Of course, anything can happen and historically there has been a lot of variance in these returns, but for reasons discussed in the show, it is likely that returns will be much lower than the assumptions made by pensions and buy and hold investors.  This puts a lot of peoples’ retirement plans at risk. It also means that there will likely be moves to raise taxes to cover “shortfalls”, increasing the sluggishness of future economic growth. When you add in all the debt in the world to this mix, it is hard to see where we will get growth from for literally decades, without undergoing a serious economic crisis.However, given all of this, there will still be a lot of opportunity to make money in the markets, but it will require more flexibility, not just buying and hoping.

This topic will be the focus of an upcoming class, “Achieving Your Financial Goals In A Zero Growth World”. If you would like free tickets, call 84-48-Income (844.846.2663) and tell them that you read about it on the Next Week In Stocks website. I hope to see you there.

Check out this week’s show:

Click Here For Free CD Offer!

If you would like to submit a question to the show, or to give us feedback, please send an email to:  phoenix@tradingacademy.com. Also, check out our sister show, “The Right Side Of The Trade” on the following stations:

Money Radio 1510 and 99.3: Thursday’s and Saturday’s at noon

1100 KFNX: Sunday’s and Tuesday’s at noon

Of course, you can always find “Next Week In Stocks” on:

550 KFYI: Saturday at 1pm and Sunday at 4am

October 3, 2015: Fasten Your Seatbelts, We Are Expecting Turbulence Ahead…

This show was recorded on Wednesday evening, September 30. Today, Russia started bombing Syria, at least 17 bombs went off in one city in China, all Fed regions reported negative growth for the first time since 2009 and ADP reported that we have lost manufacturing jobs year-to-date, also for the first time since 2009. There is an Emerging Market crisis on the horizon, the EU is at risk, China is slowing down precipitously, the world is likely headed to recession and everyone wonders when the Fed will raise rates… Again, I don’t see the Fed raising before 2017 at the earliest and easing/negative interest rates are more likely than an increase. That said, if they do raise, lookout. It could get ugly in a hurry in both the stock and housing markets.

Overall the market continues to weaken. Watch the response to this week’s jobs numbers. My guess is that even if you get an initial bounce, it won’t hold and the down move will start again next week. But you may not even get a bounce.

Knowing how to invest in this type of environment is key. If you would like to learn more about what to do now, I am going to be teaching a special one day class: “How to trade and invest in a volatile market”. If you would like free tickets, call 84-48-Income (844.846.2663) and tell them that you read about the class on the Next Week In Stocks website. Hope to see you there!

Click here to check it out:

Click Here For Free CD Offer!

If you would like to submit a question to the show, or to give us feedback, please send an email to:  phoenix@tradingacademy.com. Also, check out our sister show, “The Right Side Of The Trade” on the following stations:

Money Radio 1510 and 99.3: Thursday’s and Saturday’s at noon

1100 KFNX: Sunday’s and Tuesday’s at noon

Of course, you can always find “Next Week In Stocks” on:

550 KFYI: Saturday at 1pm and Sunday at 4am

June 13, 2015: Roll Over Beethoven And Tell The S&P The News…

This week we looked at the current state of the market. While we have generally been concerned about the risk/reward of the market for the “buy and hold” mutual fund investor for the last year, we have also thought that it was folly to “fight the Fed” and that shorting (with a few exceptions) was also risky. That said, the market is now looking weaker than it has in a while and in fact it may be rolling over for a move to the downside. Of course, this is unknowable, the market could continue up, but that seems less likely now. In this show we explain why.

As a note, this show was recorded Tuesday evening, June 9. The next 2 days, the market moved higher, but could not move above previous highs. The market was down on Friday, and as I write this on Sunday evening, June 14 at 11:30pm, the S&P Futures are down sharply. Is this the beginning of the end? I don’t know, but you need to be prepared; one day the market will take a hit. If you want to come to a special class on my market analysis and how to prepare for a downturn, call 844.887.2337. Mention that you read about it on my blog and you can get a free ticket for yourself and a guest.

Check out this week’s show here:

 

Click Here For Free CD Offer!

If you would like to submit a question to the show, or to give us feedback, please send an email to: phoenix@tradingacademy.com. Also, check out our sister show, “The Right Side Of The Trade” on the following stations:

960 The Patriot: Sunday at 10am

Money Radio 1510 and 99.3: Thursday at noon and Saturday 10am

1100 KFNX: Saturday and Sunday at noon

Of course, you can always find “Next Week In Stocks” on:

550 KFYI: Saturday at 1pm and Sunday at 4am